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Casuarina Consulting

Business x PressNo. 15

Weekly business risk briefing

Week of 7 September 2026

From a looming rare-earth deadline to a cocoa crop in doubt, five risks shaping the week ahead and what to watch.

01Supply Chain & MaterialsHigh

A rare-earth deadline is closing fast

LowElevatedHighSevere

China's suspension of its rare-earth export controls is set to expire on 10 November, with a separate US-focused suspension on gallium, germanium and graphite following on 27 November. That is a hard date on the calendar for anyone whose magnets, batteries or chips run through Chinese supply. Enforcement has already tightened, and prices have been climbing. The window to qualify alternatives is short.

Watch →

Your exposure to Chinese rare earths and to the November expiries, and how far buffer stock or alternative suppliers actually reach.

02Regulation & ComplianceElevated

Carbon accounting is being rewritten into one standard

LowElevatedHighSevere

The ISO and the GHG Protocol have agreed to merge their corporate carbon-accounting rules into a single harmonised global standard, even as the EU finalises its ESG ratings regime and California's Scope 3 disclosure rules advance. The measuring stick for emissions is changing under companies' feet. Reporting built to the old patchwork will need to be re-based, and soon.

Watch →

Whether your emissions accounting can move to a single harmonised standard, and your readiness for EU and California disclosure timelines.

03Trade & TariffsElevated

The solar tariff loophole just closed

LowElevatedHighSevere

The US has shut the circumvention route that let low-cost solar modules dodge tariffs, aiming to protect domestic manufacturing. The catch is timing: module prices are likely to rise in the near term before local capacity can fill the gap. Anyone planning solar procurement or building a clean-energy budget is exposed to a step change in cost.

Watch →

Solar procurement costs and contract timing, and whether tariff-driven module price rises hit your energy or capex plans.

04Climate & InsuranceHigh

A busy typhoon season is aimed at your factories

LowElevatedHighSevere

Forecasters expect an above-average Pacific typhoon season steering more storms toward Japan, Greater China and Korea, the heart of global manufacturing, even as an El Nino may quiet Atlantic hurricanes. First-half insured catastrophe losses ran below trend at around 42 billion dollars, but the second-half outlook is rising. Physical risk and the cost of insuring against it are both climbing.

Watch →

Typhoon exposure of your Asian sites and suppliers, and rising premiums or shrinking cover in catastrophe-prone regions.

05Commodities & AgricultureElevated

Cocoa is flashing another deficit warning

LowElevatedHighSevere

Early field surveys of the young pods that become Ivory Coast and Ghana's main crop are showing below-average counts, and traders are flagging a possible 2026-27 deficit even as coffee prices ease on a strong Brazilian harvest. Soft commodities remain a volatile, weather-driven input. Food and consumer businesses that assumed the price crunch was over may be caught out.

Watch →

Cocoa and other weather-exposed soft-commodity inputs in your cost base, and how far forward your pricing is hedged.

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