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Casuarina Consulting

Business x PressNo. 17

Weekly business risk briefing

Week of 26 October 2026

From Europe's deadliest summer to coral reefs on the brink, five risks shaping the week ahead and what to watch.

01Supply Chain & OperationsElevated

Credit is drying up where climate risk is highest

LowElevatedHighSevere

New analysis shows bank lending is retreating from the economies most exposed to climate shocks, with Bangladesh a stark example of rising risk meeting shrinking finance. When suppliers in climate-stressed regions cannot borrow to rebuild or adapt, the fragility lands in your supply chain. Resilience is becoming a sourcing criterion, not just a cost line.

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The financial resilience of suppliers in climate-exposed regions, and whether a key input depends on a single vulnerable geography.

02Geopolitics & TradeElevated

China now sells more EVs than everyone else

LowElevatedHighSevere

A record two-thirds of new cars sold in China are now electric, cementing its lead in batteries, components and price. Western carmakers and their suppliers face a widening cost and technology gap, and the trade politics that follow. The EV transition is no longer a question of if, but of who sets the terms.

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Your exposure to Chinese EV and battery supply, and to tariff or trade measures aimed at closing the gap.

03Climate & EnvironmentHigh

Europe just had its deadliest summer on record

LowElevatedHighSevere

Heat killed a staggering 50,000 people across Europe's cities this summer, the worst toll yet, as the continent logged its hottest season ever. Extreme heat is now a direct hit to workforce health, productivity, and the cost of keeping premises and people safe. Heat is an operating risk, not a seasonal inconvenience.

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Heat exposure for your workforce and sites, and emerging heat-safety rules and productivity losses in the hottest months.

04Social Impact & LabourElevated

Coral collapse puts coastal livelihoods on notice

LowElevatedHighSevere

UN advisers warn that almost every shallow-water coral reef could collapse within fifty years, taking with it the fisheries and tourism that hundreds of millions of people depend on. For businesses tied to coastal economies and seafood supply, the social and commercial ground is shifting. The communities hit first are the least able to absorb it.

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Dependence on coral-linked fisheries, tourism or coastal communities, and the social risk where livelihoods erode.

05Regulation & ComplianceHigh

The emissions math just got stricter

LowElevatedHighSevere

A new UN assessment concludes the world is on track for 2.8 degrees and must cut emissions 18 percent in four years to claw back toward 1.5. Expect that gap to translate into tougher mandates, carbon pricing and disclosure as governments scramble to respond. The compliance burden rarely eases after a report like this.

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Tightening emissions mandates, carbon pricing and disclosure rules in your markets, and the cost of meeting them.

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