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Casuarina Consulting

Business x Press · No. 16

Week of 5 October 2026

From a winter of compound disasters to rising power and water bills, five risks shaping the week ahead and what to watch.

01Climate & InsuranceHigh

A winter of compound disasters is being priced in

LowElevatedHighSevere

California is bracing for floods, fires and extreme storms hitting at once this winter, and England just recorded its worst July on record for wildfires. Insurers and operators are no longer facing one hazard at a time but several stacked together. Physical climate risk, and the cost or availability of cover against it, is moving from a tail risk to a planning assumption.

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Your sites' and suppliers' exposure to compound weather events this winter, and where insurance is repricing or pulling out.

02Energy & UtilitiesHigh

Power costs are climbing up the P&L

LowElevatedHighSevere

US electric and gas utilities asked regulators for a record 4.5 billion dollars in rate increases in the third quarter, driven by grid upgrades and surging demand. For energy-intensive businesses, electricity is shifting from a stable overhead to a rising, volatile cost. The bill for modernising the grid is starting to land on customers.

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Pending utility rate cases in your regions, and how a step change in power prices hits your cost base and siting decisions.

03Water & InfrastructureElevated

Water is quietly becoming expensive

LowElevatedHighSevere

US households now pay 62 percent more for drinking water than they did a decade ago, as ageing pipes and contamination drive up the cost of a basic input. Water-intensive operations face the same curve, plus tightening quality rules. The era of water as a cheap, unlimited utility is ending in more places than most budgets assume.

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Water costs and quality-compliance exposure at your sites, and tariff rises at the utilities you depend on.

04Trade & Industrial PolicyElevated

Europe blinks again on EV rules

LowElevatedHighSevere

The EU is weighing a third loosening of its vehicle emissions rules in two years, aiming to shield carmakers struggling to compete with cheaper Chinese EVs. Repeated policy u-turns reward delay and punish the firms that invested early in the transition. Regulatory certainty, the thing capital plans around, is itself becoming the risk.

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How shifting emissions and EV mandates reshape your roadmap, and whether early low-carbon investment is being stranded by policy reversals.

05Regulation & NatureElevated

Nature rules are reaching into genetic data

LowElevatedHighSevere

At the COP17 biodiversity talks, governments are wrangling over benefit-sharing from digital sequence information, the genetic data behind many drugs, crops and cosmetics, while a global pledge to fund forest rights beat its target even as direct funding to communities stayed low. Nature obligations are widening from land and emissions to the data derived from biodiversity. Sectors that quietly rely on genetic resources should be watching.

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Whether your products draw on genetic or biodiversity-derived data, and emerging benefit-sharing and nature-disclosure obligations.